Chena Ridge, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXAK69 PAFG 310856
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1256 AM AKDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The Interior will be settling into a fairly quiet pattern for the
weekend and early next week. Meanwhile, yet another arctic trough
will move across the arctic coast from Utqiagvik today and
Sunday, bringing light snow showers and blowing snow from west
winds. There will be rather significant blowing snow toward
Kaktovik where west winds will gust to near 50 mph, thus a winter
weather advisory has been issued (yes, you heard me right, a
winter weather advisory for June). Another stronger gale force
lows moves into the E Bering Sea on Sat night and Sun.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another cool day behind an arctic trough today with temps running
a solid ten degrees below seasonal norms. A few showers across the
E Interior and AK Range, otherwise quiet. Sunday is shaping up to
be a pretty nice days with a recovery in temps and a bit more sun.
South winds in the afternoon will also become gusty, with higher
gusts to 40 mph in the AK Range passes. More clouds roll in Sunday
as a weakening front from the Gulf of AK shifts north of the AK
Range. There will be showers possibly, mainly over the N Interior
and higher elevations.

- No notable weather impacts with a cool day today, then gradual
  warming albeit slightly below seasonal norms through Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low across the N Bering Sea is still bringing some mixed rain
and snow to the W Seward Peninsula and across Saint Lawrence
Island. it will briefly weaken this afternoon with showers ending.
Then, a stronger gale force low will replace it as it shifts into
the E Bering Sea. This low will bring rain to the SW Coastline up
to the Seward Peninsula. The low then weakens Sun night.

- Rain/snow mix continues for Saint Lawrence Island and the W
  Seward Pen then ends this afternoon.

- Strong gale moves into the SW Coastline and will bring higher
  gusts of 55 mph to Saint Lawrence Island and the YK Delta and
  into Norton Sound, with gusty winds of 20 to 25 mph elsewhere.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
Yet another arctic front will move south along the coastline Sat
and Sat night, bringing another round of light snow and blowing
snow from Utqiagvik east, although the most significant blowing
snow will be around Kaktovik where we expect visibility to be
reduced to a half mile or less with gusts to 55 mph from the west.
The front will weaken and move east Sun evening with high pressure
building in Monday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
There is a 516 dam arctic low over the E Arctic. There is a 518
dam low digging south across the N Bering Sea. There is a very
strong 971 mb low over the Canadian maritime, about as strong as
any low gets this time of year that far north. There is a trough
axis extending southwest from that low toward the Arctic Coast,
which is currently moving south. With time, that arctic front
shifts south and east along the Arctic coast, with the N Bering
Sea low merging with a NPAC low and strengthening over the E
Bering Sea and SW coastline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Quiet fire weather pattern as the Mainland will be cooler and
stable to thunderstorms today and Sun, and even into Monday. South
winds through AK Range gaps pick up Sun 25 gusting to 40 mph. Min
RH will be into the 30 % range over Interior locations today,
dropping into the mid 20 % range tomorrow near the AK Range with
the south gap winds. A scattering of showers returns to the
N Mainland Monday as a weakening E Bering Sea front shifts
northward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon at Stevens Village continues to gradually rise, but
there are still no concerns for flooding at this time. The Manley
Slough has been rising over the last few days but still a few feet
from bankfull and our observer is not concerned. The Chena River
is dropping as expected since there is less rainfall and snowmelt
and this trend should continue through the weekend.

The only river of concern right now is the Sag River. We had
additional snow a couple days ago and are expecting about 0.10 to
0.20" of additional QPF tonight into tomorrow night at the
headwaters. Temperatures remain below normal through the week so
break-up is not expected quite yet. The DOT notified us that there
has been some ice coming up near the Dalton but it is normal for
this time of the year. Overall, there are no major concerns unless
there is a rapid warm up which is not expected for the next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A fairly mundane and slow moving pattern unfolds next week as
large Bering Sea low traverses east into the Gulf of AK, with
chances of rain showers moving across the N Mainland with a
return to isolated thunderstorm threats Tue through at least Thu.
Temps are moderating back closer to seasonal norms.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ825.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-816-817-850>854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher